Today, Tuesday (June 9), during the Asian session, Silver TD is trading below the 16,280 yuan/kg level. It opened at 16,417 yuan/kg and is now quoted at 16,260 yuan/kg as of press time, down 0.47%. The intraday high was 16,599 yuan/kg and the low was 16,200 yuan/kg. Overall, Silver TD remains in a sideways-to-bearish pattern, and prices have fallen for five straight trading days.
1. Three macro risks keep weighing on silver
The main bearish drivers for silver currently come from three sides:
- U.S. Treasury yields keep rising, raising the holding cost of non-yielding assets;
- The U.S. dollar index keeps strengthening, pressuring precious metals priced in dollars;
- Market worries about Fed rate hikes keep heating up, and tighter policy expectations weaken silver's appeal as a financial asset.
On the other hand, whether industrial silver demand can offset the policy-driven bearish factors remains one of the market's key uncertainties.
2. Inflation and geopolitical risks are intertwined, and policy pressure is hard to ease
Improving U.S. manufacturing data suggests the economy still has resilience. But turmoil in the Middle East continues to push inflation higher. If inflation stays elevated, the Fed will be forced to keep policy tight for a long time. Even if silver has a supply deficit and new-energy demand keeps growing, it is still hard to resist the systemic pressure from monetary policy.
On the geopolitical front, the rapid developments in the Middle East over the past 24 hours have significantly increased the risk that the U.S. could again be dragged into a large regional conflict. On Monday, Trump intervened, pushing Israel and Iran back a step from the brink of direct war. However, how long this easing can last remains unclear.
Iran had earlier announced the end of military operations against Israel, but Iran's central military command also warned that if Israel continues military strikes, including operations in southern Lebanon, Iran will respond more forcefully. That means the Middle East remains highly uncertain, and any new military clash could reignite safe-haven demand in the market.
[Latest Silver TD market analysis]
Silver TD plunged more than 7% yesterday and closed with a large bearish candle, marking a sharp pullback. Today, affected by repeated geopolitical risks and elevated rate-hike expectations, Silver TD weakened again and is now in a narrow consolidation range.
- On the technical side, the one-hour MACD has turned positive, showing that a short-term repair is needed. But on the daily chart, the DIF and DEA lines are still in negative territory, so the weak trend has not fundamentally changed.
- On the one-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to oversold territory, showing sellers still have the upper hand. The DMI also confirms the market is in a downtrend, but the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating downside momentum is easing and the current tone is bearish consolidation.
Key Silver TD levels for today:
- Support below: 15,500-16,000 yuan/kg
- Resistance above: 16,800-17,200 yuan/kg
