Today, Tuesday (June 9), during the Asian session, London silver is trading above $68.31/oz. It opened at $68.16/oz and is now quoted at $68.51/oz as of press time, up 0.55%; intraday high was $68.58/oz and low was $67.41/oz. The short-term bias is bullish overall.
Data show that the world's largest silver ETF added 42 tons in a single day, reversing the prior long stretch of net reductions and sending a clear signal that bullish funds are entering.
Collin Martin, head of fixed-income research and strategy at Schwab Center for Financial Research, said on Monday that with inflation still high and the labor market remaining solid, the threshold for the Fed to raise rates is gradually getting lower. He bluntly said that under current conditions, there is already a case for a rate hike. He also noted that high inflation has lasted for five years and is still moving in an adverse direction.
Because of the uncertainty in policy outlook, several institutions have adjusted their expectations. Goldman Sachs withdrew its forecast for a Fed rate cut in December last Friday, saying clearly that there will be no cut this year and pushing the timing of a shift toward easing back to 2027.
As for the next policy move, Martin said that in a highly uncertain market, the Fed will probably choose to wait and see. The base case is that policy stays unchanged for the long term, and the Fed may first shift its stance from easing to neutral. If the Iran situation continues to fuel inflation and the labor market stays strong, the Fed could turn even more hawkish.
Latest London silver market analysis
London silver has been correcting lower for some time, and the current price is still far below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $73.97/oz. The short-term weak structure remains, and that moving average has become the main dynamic resistance for now.
On the technical side, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 35.83, close to oversold territory. That means there is still room for further downside, but selling pressure is gradually easing and the decline may slow.
Key levels:
- Resistance above: $73.97/oz (20-day EMA). If the daily close can hold above this level, bearish sentiment will ease and price could rebound further toward $80/oz.
- Support below: $61.61/oz (March 23 low).
