Today, Tuesday (June 9), during the Asian session, Shanghai gold main contract is quoted at 945.26 yuan/gram, up 0.82 yuan from the previous close, or about 0.09%. Last week, after being hit by the nonfarm payrolls data, Shanghai gold plunged on heavy volume, broke below the key 960 yuan support, and hit a three-month low.
After bearish momentum was fully released, the market is now using the 940 yuan level as support for low-level consolidation and repair, while strong resistance sits at 960 yuan. Investors are waiting for tonight's U.S. CPI data, and trading remains cautious on both sides.
At the macro level, the U.S. economy continues to show better-than-expected resilience, but the micro-level 'felt temperature' is sliding toward freezing. The latest New York Fed survey reveals a split picture: corporate data and GDP look strong, but residents' financial pain index is rising rapidly.
May data show that nearly 48% of respondents said their finances were worse than a year earlier, the highest share since January 2023. Another 13.3% said their finances had 'deteriorated sharply', the fastest increase since July 2022.
Looking ahead one year, 36% expect their finances to worsen, far above the 22.9% who are optimistic, and the gap has fallen to the lowest level in nearly 2.5 years. This pessimism is not without reason: although the labor market has improved on the surface, May wages rose only 3.4% year over year, far below the 3.8% inflation pace from the previous month, so real purchasing power continues to be eroded.
Even more worrying, the nationwide credit card delinquency rate has surged to its highest level since 2011, meaning that under the double squeeze of high prices and high interest rates, more and more households can no longer keep debt under control. Financial risk is shifting from warning signs to a real outbreak.
The oil-price shock from Middle East turmoil is pushing inflation expectations back into focus. The market widely expects Wednesday's May CPI release to jump to 4.2% year over year, a three-year high, while core CPI is also expected to reach 2.9%, completely moving away from the Fed's 2% comfort zone.
The survey shows a sharp rise in expectations for higher food and rent prices, while wage growth is still lagging behind price increases. This trap of 'income running behind inflation' has further cemented the public's pessimism about the future.
Latest gold futures market analysis
Shanghai gold main contract is quoted at 945.26 yuan/gram and is now in a low-level consolidation and repair phase after the plunge. Technical signals across time frames are as follows:
Weekly chart
Last week Shanghai gold printed a large bearish candle with a full body, falling more than 3.5% in a single day. The weekly candle body directly broke below the key 960 yuan support, ending the four-month range that had held since the first half of the year. Weekly MACD formed a death cross at high levels, and green bars began expanding, confirming the bearish trend.
This is the first clear trend-based bearish signal on the weekly chart since the uptrend began in November 2025, and the downside channel has now opened.
Daily chart
Shanghai gold has fallen back from the 1,032 yuan/gram high at the start of the year and has formed a standard bearish structure of lower highs and lower lows. Price has broken below all short-term moving averages, and the 5-day, 10-day and 20-day averages have all turned down, forming a complete bearish alignment.
The current price found temporary support at the 940 yuan level. The KDJ indicator has entered oversold territory, and the MACD green bars have narrowed slightly from the previous day, showing that bearish momentum is fading and a technical repair is needed, but no clear reversal signal has appeared yet.
Short-term 4-hour chart
Shanghai gold is rebounding on support at 940 yuan and is currently consolidating in the 940-960 yuan range. The KDJ indicator has turned up from low levels and formed a golden cross, so short-term rebound momentum still exists. The first resistance is near 955 yuan, and strong resistance is at 960 yuan, the lower edge of the earlier broken range, which has now turned into strong pressure.
The core support below remains the 940 yuan level. If the rebound fails and price falls back below it, the next area to watch is the 920-925 yuan range.
