Delivery Surge; Spot Premium Signals Tight Supply
On July 30, 2026, COMEX gold futures saw notable movement. According to the latest CME data, gold futures delivery on July 29 reached 183,000 ounces, the highest single-day record since September 2024. Meanwhile, the spot gold premium over the front-month futures contract (basis) narrowed to $1.8 per ounce, far below the year-to-date average of $3.5, indicating futures prices are rapidly converging with spot, a typical squeeze structure.
ETF Holdings Rise; Funds Accelerate Inflow
Echoing the delivery surge, global precious metals ETFs continued to attract capital. The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), increased holdings for five consecutive trading days from July 24 to 29, with net inflows of 6.2 tons, lifting total holdings to 1,028 tons, the highest since November 2025. In silver ETFs, iShares Silver Trust (SLV) holdings rebounded to 14,800 tons, near a three-year high. Accelerated fund inflows indicate institutional investors are broadly bullish on gold and silver.
In Asian markets, Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) gold futures also showed similar structural changes. In early Asian trading on July 30, the discount of TOCOM's front-month gold contract to the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) spot price narrowed to below 0.5 yuan per gram, with arbitrage opportunities nearly vanishing and physical import demand pressure rising. SGE data showed that in the fourth week of July, gold withdrawals rose 23% week-on-week to 58 tons, a new weekly high for the year, reflecting sustained domestic gold consumption.
U.S. Treasury Yields Fall; Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise
On the macro front, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to 3.92% on July 29, a new low since June 2025. Market pricing of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September rose to 73% from 55% a week earlier. Interest rate futures show the full-year rate cut expectation has reached 75 bps. The low-rate environment significantly reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, while the U.S. dollar index remains under pressure near 99.6, providing additional upside for gold.
Squeeze Risk Emerging; Silver Shows Stronger Resilience
Against the backdrop of a gold squeeze structure, the silver market is also showing strength. COMEX silver futures open interest rose 1.2% on July 29, with delivery applications climbing in tandem. The gold-silver ratio fell from around 92 to 89.5, indicating silver's relative outperformance. On industrial demand, global demand for photovoltaic silver paste grew 18% year-on-year in Q2 2026, and silver industrial inventories fell to the lowest level since December 2023. Under supply-demand pressure, the silver spot premium over futures reached $0.12 per ounce, the highest since March 2024.
Asian gold mining US stocks also rose broadly. As of the close on July 29, Barrick Gold (GOLD) ADR rose 2.3%, Newmont (NEM) rose 1.8%, and the Hong Kong-listed shares (01787.HK) of Shandong Gold (SH:600547), one of Asia's largest gold miners, rose for four consecutive days with a cumulative gain of 5.4%. Analysts believe that if the squeeze continues, miners' profit leverage could expand again.
Outlook: Monitor Delivery Week Data and Fed Decision
Looking ahead to the next week, market focus will be on three aspects: First, the August COMEX gold futures contract enters first notice day on July 31, putting continued pressure on shorts; second, the tone of the Fed's July rate decision (August 1), especially hints on the rate-cut path; third, whether Asian central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China, will announce new gold reserve increase data in early August. If these factors align, gold and silver prices could break through previous highs, with gold possibly challenging the $2,800 per ounce mark.
However, traders should be wary of pullback risks from overly crowded long positions. Current COMEX gold net long positions are near 2024 highs; if macro sentiment shifts, sharp volatility could occur. Investors are advised to use options strategies to hedge tail risks and watch for silver's catch-up potential as the gold-silver ratio narrows further.
This report is compiled based on public data from CME, Shanghai Gold Exchange, and the world's largest ETFs, and does not constitute investment advice.
