Title: Peace expectations between the United States and Iran boost precious metals; gold and silver may be opening a long-term entry window, but confirmation is still needed

Keywords:

Precious metals, gold, silver, Federal Reserve, inflation, geopolitics, technical confirmation, long-term trend

Main text:

Introduction: Short-term positives heat up, precious metals attract capital again

Stoked by news that the United States and Iran are close to signing a peace agreement, gold and silver opened the week strongly, and safe-haven sentiment briefly returned to the market. Easing geopolitical risk usually weakens the immediate appeal of precious metals as havens, but at a deeper level that does not mean the upward logic for gold and silver is over. On the contrary, the mismatch between short-term swings and long-term trends gives investors a chance to reassess the allocation value of precious metals.

MarketGauge chief market strategist Michele Schneider believes that the recent pullback in precious metals is more like a rare long-term buying window. However, she also warns that investors should not chase strength without technical confirmation, because true bottoms usually need to be validated by price, volume, and follow-through buying.

1. A decline is not necessarily risk; it may be a medium- to long-term opportunity

Schneider says the selloff on June 11 may have been an important turning point for the precious-metals market, but it was not yet possible to conclude that a bottom had formed. In technical analysis, whether a market has finished bottoming depends not on one rebound, but on whether the rebound is followed by sustained buying support. If prices only bounce briefly and then quickly fall back, that is more likely short-covering than the start of a new trend.

Ideally, after a reversal, gold should enter a period of consolidation, or close above the prior day's high on stronger volume. That structure means the market is attracting new active buyers rather than simply relying on short covering to push prices higher. In other words, a reliable reversal signal requires sentiment and capital flows to improve together.

2. Silver matters even more than gold, and may signal the next inflation cycle

In Schneider's view, silver is even more important than gold. If silver again begins to outperform gold noticeably, it often means the market is repricing inflation expectations. Silver is not only a precious metal, but also has industrial-metal characteristics; its demand is closely tied to manufacturing, tech investment, and the growth of new energy.

Especially against the backdrop of fast expansion in artificial intelligence, solar power, and other high-tech industries, silver's industrial use could once again unlock demand elasticity. As a result, silver's strength relative to gold may become an important guide for the next phase of the precious-metals market. If silver confirms strength first, that usually also increases the odds that gold will follow.

From a technical perspective, silver has already broken below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, but it is still holding the 50-week moving average. That suggests the medium-term trend has not been fully damaged. For medium- to long-term investors, this structure usually means the market is still in a repair phase rather than a failed trend reversal.

3. With the Fed meeting approaching, short-term pressure has eased but the long-term logic is unchanged

This week's Federal Reserve meeting is also in the spotlight. Recent declines in commodity prices, a temporarily stronger dollar, and eased geopolitical worries have all reduced short-term inflation pressure to some extent and weakened the immediate catalysts for gold and silver. However, Schneider stresses that these factors mainly affect trading rhythm rather than the long-term fundamentals of precious metals.

The current U.S. economy shows a clear K-shaped pattern: low-income households are still under pressure from rising living costs, while the resilience of high-income consumers and companies supports the surface stability of overall economic data. This structure temporarily eases systemic risk, but it also makes the inflation problem more sticky, because demand divergence and cost pressure have not truly disappeared.

4. Structural support remains, and the long-term bullish case for precious metals is intact

Over a longer cycle, the core factors supporting gold and silver are still there. First, geopolitical uncertainty has not vanished; localized easing does not mean global risks have been cleared. Second, government debt levels around the world continue to rise, weakening the long-term stability of sovereign credit. Third, although inflation pressure has eased somewhat, there is still not enough evidence to say it has entered a fully downward channel.

In addition, central banks around the world continue to add to gold, which has become an important support for the precious-metals market. Schneider specifically noted that the recovery in demand from China's central bank also provides extra support for gold. As external uncertainty rises and the need for diversified allocation increases, gold's strategic value as a reserve asset continues to strengthen.

More importantly, the market may be underestimating the long-term inflation impact of AI infrastructure buildout and global competition for strategic resources. Whether it is data-center expansion, energy-system upgrades, or the reshaping of critical mineral supply chains, future capital expenditure could keep growing, and such structural spending often provides a potential underpinning for prices over a long period.

Conclusion: Confirm the short term, follow the trend in the long term

Overall, precious metals are benefiting in the short term from trading repair under the expectation of geopolitical easing, but what truly determines the future direction is still technical confirmation and fundamental trend. For gold, whether the rebound after the pullback can continue depends on whether follow-through buying really strengthens; for silver, its relative strength is more likely to reveal the outline of the next inflation and industrial-demand cycle.

With Federal Reserve policy, the dollar trend, and global risk appetite still uncertain, precious metals may not advance in a straight line. But from a medium- to long-term perspective, the strategic allocation value of gold and silver has not diminished. For investors, what matters most right now is not chasing short-term volatility, but identifying the right moment to position after trend confirmation.